Power
Tools for Making
Weather Based Business Decisions
10-Day
Site Specific Forecast
Over the years, I have developed my 10-day forecast sheet with
feedback from many of my early clients. As they have requested
more and more information, I have added their requests to the
faxed sheet. The 10-day forecast is intended to give you as much
information about the next 10 days as I can cram onto a single
sheet. The specific data along with the associated discussion
should give you a great deal of specific and overview information
about the local and regional weather forecast and pattern. I
also include thoughts or comments about other areas just in case
you are traveling to another area that is close by. I place a
greater emphasis on days two through 10; most of us are aware
of today's weather just by sticking our head out the window.
However, during specific events I will give a very detailed forecast
and discussion concerning today's weather and downplay the longer
term information. Obviously, this depends on the weather pattern
and specific needs of our clients.
The 10-day forecast
should give you all the information you could ask for concerning
short- and long-term weather. Keep in mind that all of our long-range
computer models come into my office from 1 a.m. to 3 a.m., which
is why I get up at 3 a.m.; it assures you that you are getting
the latest information on a daily basis. I tell my clients that
if they wait around for the latest extended forecast on TV at
5 p.m. or 11 p.m., they have just wasted a day because those
newscasts are using the longer range models from that morning.
By getting my forecasts early you are assured of the latest long-range
model information.
30-Day
Long-Range Forecasts
I started writing these forecasts in college to see how the weather
pattern would evolve and develop over the next 30 days. This
was a great learning experience for me as it gave me a chance
to see how long-term patterns moved and developed. Once out of
college, I had a good feeling for how different weather patterns
moved and how they impacted our regional weather pattern. Thus,
I have been able to use my experience of the past 25 years of
watching weather move. Plus, I have done a number of historical
studies looking at long-term trends. By looking at the present
position of the major weather features, and the MRF and Euro
Model predictions of their movement, I can develop a 30-day trend
forecast that can have a great deal of information for all of
you. Of course, these forecasts can ebb and flow and are not
always perfect, but I can give you a good idea, with a high level
of confidence, whether the month will be warmer or cooler than
normal, or wetter or drier than normal. I can also break it down
into week by week segments that can pin it down even more. I
cannot forecast day by day with much confidence, but the weekly
trends, along with my daily 10-day forecast, can prove to be
a great forecast package that does help with planning.
The 30-day long range
forecasts are issued twice a month, usually on the 1st and 15th
of the month. The first forecast usually includes the current
months "normals" for a number of sites in a given
region or state. The second forecast usually includes a 60- and
90-day outlook for the state or region. This is an effective
long-range tool and if read regularly can be a very useful planning
tool. This forecast product is intended for those doing longer
term planning and needing some additional input into longer term
trends and forecasts. I also write a six-month seasonal forecast
which is issued on November 1 (winter season), and May 1 (summer
season), and covers the various regions of the western United
States. I use the same thought process as discussed above, which
works quite well. Sometimes it is more effective to simplify
the weather pattern and look at overall trends rather than try
to be too complicated.
Short-range
Forecast, Hourly, and Every-Six-Hours
The need for specific short-range forecast information is clear
during severe weather events that periodically impact our region.
Snow, ice, and wind storms can knock us for a loop, so I issue
hourly or every-six-hour forecasts in order to help clients schedule
crews and staff members during these events. By doing so, we
are able to save the client (you) valuable overtime costs, which
far and away exceed the cost of our service. The short-range
forecasts are issued as needed; hourly forecast bulletins are
issued during snow, ice, wind, or heavy rainfall events. While
the every-six-hour forecasts are issued daily, year round. These
forecasts usually cover the next 18 to 24 hours and are not intended
to go out any further.
The short-range forecasts
are ideal for crew chiefs and foremen who are planning for staffing
during severe weather events, and are intended for operational
needs. These are also useful year round for general planning
and staffing. The short-range forecasts are also ideal for icing
and frost events when there is a need to protect plants, roads,
and sensitive products. These can give you a much better idea
when we will reach a crucial temperature, heavy rain, or snow
event, etc. You can glean a great deal of information from these
forecast products as your needs arise. The short-range and hourly
forecasts are available through our Severe Weather Alert program
or via special request.
Severe
Weather Alert Program
The severe weather alert program developed from my work with
school districts and transportation clients. They required a
more hands-on approach to forecasting with a need to be able
to talk with me directly during severe weather events and emergencies.
This product is more labor intensive for me, but is much more
rewarding as I have the chance to discuss the weather situation
directly with those who are making the decisions. This gives
me a better feel for what you, the client, are up against, and
it gives you a better chance to pick my brain. Plus, it also
gives you a chance to understand what I am up against. The Alert
Program is more intensive than any of my other programs. It is
a full-service program with faxed, E-mail, InfoNet, and phone
feedback. During severe weather events, I am on call 24 hours
a day, seven days a week, or until the event has passed. The
Alert Program is rather intensive and extensive.
The purpose of this
program is to allow direct communications between me and you,
the client, without the need for anyone in the middle. I am very
concerned about misinformation. We need to discuss upcoming or
on-going weather situations directly. By doing so we cut down
on the time needed for you to get up to speed on the weather
situation, plus you do not have to wade through the last faxed
or e-mailed forecast. This is usually much quicker and more helpful
than any other means. I can provide a great deal of weather information
via electronic media, but the best way is via phone, cell phone,
or Motorola 800 service. This seems to work the best for all
of us.
Stream
Flow Forecasts
The need for longer term stream flow and river height forecasts
was painfully shown during the February and November 1996 flood
events. It seems that most of us impacted by flooding need more
than 48 hours to prepare for such an event. The River Forecast
Center does a good job with short-term trends but most folks
are telling us that they need more time. We are stepping in to
provide a five-day stream flow forecast. Of course, there are
a number of issues that need to be considered but some information
is better than nothing at all. The need to provide a daily forecast,
going out five days, is issued year round, but is updated twice
daily via our InfoNet program. Those that need selected stream
flow forecasts from around the region can access the information
via InfoNet or by request via e-mail or fax. We certainly cannot
take into account all the variables from the Corp of Engineers
or other regulatory agencies controlling the dams, but we can
account for snow runoff and rainfall and how they contribute
to stream flow, plus ground water supplies. Keep in mind that
not all streams and rivers are controlled by dams so our information
will help keep you abreast of river level and stream flow changes
five days out!
Fruit
Frost Forecast
The frost program developed from our transportation group and
has now carried over to the fruit and nursery industries. Road
crews need the frost forecast in order to do a better job of
placing chemical de-icers on the road surfaces. So, I have put
together an hour-by-hour and every-six-hours frost forecast during
the fall, winter and spring months. The fruit frost forecasts
cover the important nursery and fruit growing regions of the
West, and it is similar in scope to the road frost forecast,
attempting to identify when temperatures will drop to freezing
or below. It looks at dew point values and local winds which
will affect how long and how cold a frost event will go. I have
over 100 fruit frost forecast sites which I list in my afternoon
frost alert program. Most of these sites are located in major
agriculture and transportation corridors and are the key stations
for most growers. Secondary sites are located in isolated growing
and transportation areas, which help those that are located in
some of the higher valleys of the region. Together, they form
a great network for fruit frost and road frost planning. These
forecasts are issued daily in the afternoon, usually by around
3 p.m. Updates are sent as needed!
Graphic
Forecast Products
One picture is worth a thousand words, or so the saying goes.
Well, I like a picture too, so we are developing forecast maps
that will cover the following: severe weather areas, road forecasts,
road and crop frost, snow and ice coverage, wind forecasts, and
a general alert map that will cover the entire region or West
Coast. These products are available via the InfoNet program,
but some limited aspects might be available via our web site.
There will be additional maps available depending on need and
requests from each of you!
Road
forecast maps
We will take current road conditions and temperatures and extrapolate
them out 12, 24, and 48 hours. So those of you that are traveling
or planning to travel can see the trouble spots before you leave.
This is an ideal package for truckers or shippers of delicate
commodities, moving out of or into the Pacific Northwest or Western
United States. Major roads will be covered routinely, but secondary
roads will "pop up" during severe weather events.
Frost
and road icing maps
This map is rather obvious, but we will plan to show graphically
where we will have road icing or frost on a given night, and
we will also attempt to give a ballpark range of timing. Its
not easy to do but we will give it a shot. Most frost or ice
is transitory and short-lived and usually only in the early morning
hours. This map is usually a short-term map covering the next
24 hours.
Snow
and heavy icing maps
This is a more ambitious map that covers snow and ice on road
surfaces and is mostly reserved for the real trouble spots around
the region. This type of map will show where we expect the snow
and ice to stay and not melt away too quickly. This is mainly
a late fall, winter, and early spring product. This covers areas
that are likely to stay icy or snow-covered for hours or days
on end.
Wind
forecast map
Wind storms can impact nearly all areas of the region, but not
always with equal distribution. A map showing the "windy"
spots will cover those winds above certain thresholds, usually
40+ mph. Damaging winds can occur as low as 20-30 mph if we have
had heavy rainfall and saturated soils. But most of the damage
begins at around 40+ mph and I will use this as the lower-end
threshold. Timing and distribution of the winds and direction
will be included, plus any comments about storm movement.
General
alert map and status
The need to provide a quick glance at the regional weather action
is ideally suited to this product. The intent here is to give
all of you a quick overview of what is happening around the region
now, and then to offer an alert map for 12 hours from now, then
24 hours, then 48 hours. Again, this is a regional "micro-climate"
view not the general overview from TV or the Weather Channel.
This will specifically address roads and resort areas, winds,
snow and ice, travel advisories, and all parameters impacting
the region. This map will provide a general overview but will
have the capability to "zoom" in on key areas, like
the Columbia River Gorge, Siskiyous, and other areas as needed.
A great quick stop for a weather briefing!
430
North Lotus Isle Drive
Portland, OR 97217
503-286-4062
Fax 503-285-3633
Customer_Service@erfweather.com
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